AGP Executive Report

EU Fiscal Oversight: EU finance ministers are set to vote on placing Bulgaria under the Excessive Deficit Procedure, citing a 4.1% 2026 deficit and a forecast breach of the 3% rule in 2027, with the Council already issuing recommendations to end the procedure by 2029. Banking Regulation: Parliament approved amendments to the Credit Institutions Act, tightening rules on Bulgarian National Bank governance, conflict-of-interest declarations, and licensing for non-EU bank branches. Defense Industry Funding Fight: GERB MPs say Progressive Bulgaria must secure resources for Rheinmetall’s gunpowder factory near Sopot, while critics argue the government is driving away German investors and leaving the project unfunded. Political Climate & Elections: Progressive Bulgaria’s push to restore machine-only voting in large polling stations is back in committee, alongside a plan to relax limits on opening additional polling sites abroad. Culture & Public Media: The 2026 budget boosts the culture sector and gives BTA a chance to prove value from nearly €100m in public media funding. NATO & Regional Security: Outcomes from the Ankara summit include renewed US–Türkiye talks on CAATSA/F-35 and expanded Black Sea cooperation involving Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria. Whistleblower Protection: A study finds Bulgaria’s whistleblower framework is stronger on paper than Romania’s, but both countries struggle with weak implementation and low public trust. Border Management: Bulgaria and Serbia signed a memorandum to open the Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 crossing and ease heavy traffic at the main border checkpoint.

NATO Summit in Ankara: Türkiye hosted the 36th NATO leaders’ summit, with Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev meeting Erdoğan on the sidelines and NATO leaders ending with an Ankara Summit Declaration focused on higher defence investment, even as transatlantic rifts—especially over Ukraine funding—remain unresolved. Energy Diplomacy: Radev said agreements with Türkiye position Bulgaria as an energy gateway for Central and Eastern Europe, while Bulgaria and Ukraine also discussed energy cooperation and gas supplies during the summit period. Fuel Market Watch: Bulgaria’s government said it is in ongoing dialogue with Lukoil management to prevent fuel disruptions, after tensions tied to intra-group loan repayment raised market concerns. Parliament & Governance: MPs rejected an opposition bid for a plenary hearing on alleged SANS healthcare fraud obstruction, while a separate push to reform the Election Code reopens debate on machine voting and voting abroad. Sanctions & Interior Ministry: The Interior Ministry told the US OFAC it is ready to provide materials on Magnitsky sanctions enforcement, citing suspected circumvention via related parties and business mechanisms. Defence Industry & Budgets: Parliament advanced 2026 budget sections for energy and the economy at first reading, and Bulgaria said it lacks full funding for a Rheinmetall-linked propellant plant near Sopot. EU Enlargement & Borders: Bulgaria again appears among states opposing Serbia’s Cluster 3 opening, and Bulgaria and Serbia plan a new Kalotina 2–Gradina 2 border checkpoint agreement. Culture & Sports: BTA launched its LIK magazine issue honoring opera star Ghena Dimitrova; Sofia’s Opera on the Square festival begins; and Bulgaria’s Tennis Federation secured three more ATP Challenger events in 2026.

NATO Summit in Ankara: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev met Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with both sides focusing on energy cooperation and security in the Black Sea; Radev also reiterated Bulgaria’s role in repairs of military equipment while saying the country has exhausted its available weapons for further Ukraine aid. Black Sea Security: Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria expanded their trilateral mine countermeasures mission to protect critical undersea infrastructure, including pipelines, as NATO allies push to keep sea routes safe. EU Enlargement Clash: Eight EU member states, including Bulgaria, blocked opening Serbia’s EU accession Cluster 3 over rule-of-law concerns and Serbia’s lack of alignment with EU foreign policy and Russia sanctions. Bulgaria’s Finances: The Finance Ministry raised €2.5bn on international capital markets via three bond tranches, citing favorable yields and planning further market access later this year. EU Energy Debate: Bulgaria joined a letter from 15 EU states urging the post-2030 energy framework to make full use of nuclear power alongside renewables.

Ukraine Support at NATO Summit: Bulgarian PM Rumen Radev said Sofia has exhausted its capacity to send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, having delivered 13 aid packages, but will keep helping through “technical military assistance” by repairing Ukrainian equipment in Bulgaria. EU Legal Clash: The European Parliament refused to waive immunity of Bulgarian MEP Ilhan Kyuchyuk after an EPPO-linked probe into alleged misuse of EU funds, while the Supreme Administrative Court overturned a caretaker government move on European prosecutor candidates. Public Finance Push: Bulgaria raised €2.5bn on international debt markets in three tranches (2032/2038/2042), as Parliament’s Budget and Finance Committee advanced the 2026 state budget bill with a 5.7% deficit target. Competition Probe: Bulgaria’s competition watchdog is investigating a suspected cartel between two food-supply firms after checks tied to public procurement for schools and social care institutions. Diplomacy & Security: Bulgaria’s defence minister stressed NATO unity and a push toward higher defence spending, as Radev attended the Ankara summit. Culture & Society: The Holy Synod invited Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew to Bulgaria for St. John of Rila celebrations; President Iliana Iotova visited EnduroSat’s space centre; and Bulgaria marked 30 years since modernist artist Vera Nedkova’s death.

NATO Summit Diplomacy: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev arrived in Ankara for the July 7-8 NATO summit, with Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova and Defence Minister Dimitar Stoyanov in the delegation, after talks with Turkish President Erdoğan focused on connectivity and energy cooperation. Bulgaria-Türkiye Energy Talks: Bulgaria and Türkiye agreed to temporarily freeze a disputed gas supply arrangement following high-level meetings, with Bulgargaz and BOTAŞ later suspending the agreement for 15 months. EU Politics: The European Parliament launched a verification procedure that could strip the Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) party of its status and funding, targeting far-right forces including AfD. Health Budgeting: Parliament’s Budget and Finance Committee adopted the 2026 NHIF budget bill at first reading, setting revenues and expenditures around €5.25bn and keeping the health contribution rate at 8%. Transport Planning: The Transport Ministry said it is preparing a roadmap for strategic national infrastructure projects with long-term planning, deadlines, and clearer indexation rules. International Spotlight on Bulgaria: Bulgarian film “Black Money for White Nights” premiered at Karlovy Vary in the Crystal Globe competition, while the BNT series “Mamnik” won three international awards. Pakistan-Bulgaria Consultations: The sixth round of bilateral political consultations was held in Islamabad, reviewing cooperation on political engagement and trade.

Budget Showdown: Bulgaria’s Budget and Finance Committee will debate the 2026 State Budget Act, the Public Social Insurance budget and the NHIF budget at first reading, with a projected 5.7% deficit and changes to pensions, excise duties and gambling taxes. Appointments & Oversight: Dr. Koicho Koev has been appointed Bulgaria’s Chief Veterinary Sanitary Inspector, tasked with strengthening disease prevention and national veterinary programmes. NATO Diplomacy: Prime Minister Rumen Radev arrived in Ankara for the NATO Summit and met President Erdoğan, with Bulgaria’s delegation including key ministers. Energy Deal Twist: After Radev–Erdoğan talks, Bulgargaz and Türkiye’s BOTAS signed a protocol suspending their gas supply agreement for 15 months, shifting payments to used transmission capacity while renegotiations continue. Data Rights Clash: The MRF says it has alerted EU institutions, Europol and Interpol over alleged large-scale misuse of Passenger Name Records data, tied to senior officials and political purposes. Health Under Pressure: A new report warns extreme heat is already driving preventable harm across Europe, with older people at highest risk. Culture Spotlight: CineLink in Sarajevo finalized its co-production and drama lineups, including two Bulgarian projects returning to the market.

EU Sanctions Deadlock: EU diplomats say the 21st Russia sanctions package could slip to autumn if member states can’t agree this week, with the Russian oil price cap potentially handled separately on 14 July. NATO Summit Diplomacy: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev is in Ankara for the July 7-8 NATO summit, meeting Erdoğan as leaders line up talks with Trump, Macron, Starmer and others amid pressure for higher European defense responsibility. Bulgarian Politics & Accountability: Bulgaria’s budget debate heats up as a draft 2026 budget projects a high deficit and debt path, while critics warn of “cosmetic” fixes instead of real reform. Rule-of-Law Pressure in Europe: Civil society is demanding action after Citizen Lab said an EU spyware investigator was hacked with Pegasus while serving on the PEGA committee. Border Tensions: Bulgarian farmers block the Ivaylovgrad–Kyprinos crossing with Greece, citing Schengen-era traffic rules and demanding full opening during harvest season. Culture & Education: Sofia’s University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy reports 120 international students for 2026, and a Bulgarian language summer seminar is set to run July 12–Aug 1.

EU Sanctions & Ukraine Air Defence: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Ukraine needs more air defence after Russia’s latest massive strike, with the issue set for discussion at the NATO summit in Ankara; she also points to the first €4bn transfer under the €90bn support package for drone procurement and says work is underway on the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package. Sanctions Politics in Sofia: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev warns Sofia will not back the 21st EU sanctions package unless Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed, tying the stance to energy interests. Interior Ministry Reform & Flight Dispute: Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev announces structural reforms at the ministry and says checks are ongoing into whether Constitutional Court judge Desislava Atanasova improperly used two passports in the Peevski flight case. Medicines Shortage Fix: Bulgaria moves to protect generic medicines access by scrapping mandatory rebates on generics amid a 2025 spike in withdrawn products. Media Freedom in the Region: Serbia’s ANEM condemns Progressives’ alleged pressure on Dimitrovgrad’s FAR media outlet, saying journalists were barred from covering a public rally. NATO Summit Context: Multiple reports frame next week’s Ankara NATO summit around burden-sharing and alliance unity as security pressures mount.

EU Sanctions Standoff: Bulgaria says it will not back the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package unless Patriarch Kirill and “Lukoil” co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed from the list, with PM Rumen Radev framing it as an energy-driven national-interest position. Interior Ministry Overhaul: Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev announced a structural reform for the Ministry of Interior, including closing units, cutting overlapping functions and reviewing the whole structure to reduce admin burden and improve efficiency. Budget Fight in GERB: GERB leader Boyko Borissov signals the party is ready to support a conservative state budget only if the deficit stays within the legal 3% cap, warning the current draft’s 5.7% deficit would breach the Public Finance Act. NATO Summit Focus: Ahead of the July 7-8 NATO summit in Ankara, diplomats stress unity and solidarity, while coverage highlights Türkiye’s role as a security bridge amid regional instability. Culture & Eurovision 2027: Sofia’s deputy mayor says the city has the venues and infrastructure to host Eurovision 2027, as Canada confirms it will join the contest after becoming a full EBU member. Arts & Film: Kristina Grozeva and Petar Valchanov return to Karlovy Vary with “Black Money for White Nights,” a corruption-and-propaganda drama.

EU Sanctions & Energy: President Rumen Radev says Bulgaria will back the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions only if Patriarch Kirill and LUKOIL co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed from the list, arguing the move is about protecting Sofia’s energy interests. NATO Ankara Summit: NATO diplomats and ambassadors in Ankara are stressing “unity and solidarity” ahead of the July 7-8 summit, with Bulgaria’s envoy Anguel Tcholakov highlighting collective resolve amid rising security threats. Defence Cooperation: The EU is launching five major joint defence projects to curb fragmented national arms spending, aiming to strengthen capabilities along the eastern border. Domestic Governance: Justice Minister Nikolay Naydenov defended judiciary reform and rejected claims of pay cuts for judicial staff, while a separate analysis of the April election campaign shows parties and coalitions reported €4.56m in total revenue. Local Politics & Budget: Sofia Mayor Vassil Terziev criticized the draft 2026 state budget, warning of gaps for municipal infrastructure and public transport stability. Security Watch: Photos released from Ukraine’s Odesa show the NSM coastal defence missile system, with Bulgaria among countries that have ordered it. Culture & Cities: Deputy Mayor Irina Dakova says Sofia has the venues and infrastructure to host Eurovision 2027, including Arena Armeec and plans for the Eurovision Village around NDK. Sports: Cuban-born Bulgarian boxer Javier Ibanez won the WBC Latino Featherweight belt and is now preparing for the European Championships in Sofia.

Sanctions Standoff: Bulgarian President Rumen Radev says Sofia will back the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions only if Patriarch Kirill and LUKOIL co-founder Vagit Alekperov are removed from the list, framing it as protection of Bulgaria’s energy interests. Judiciary Reform Clash: Justice Minister Nikolay Naydenov rejects claims of cuts to judicial jobs, saying new social security rules won’t reduce pay and promising a functional review plus procurement inspections. Local Budget Fight: Sofia Mayor Vassil Terziev criticizes the draft 2026 state budget for missing municipal infrastructure, public transport stability funding, school construction, and key health and road projects. Election Money Watch: A study using National Audit Office data finds April 19 campaign revenue totaled €4.56m, with state-subsidy-heavy parties and coalitions dominating overall sums. Party Leadership: The Union of Democratic Forces elects MEP Ilia Lazarov as party chair, setting up a renewed push ahead of Bulgaria’s autumn presidential contest. NATO/Defense Outlook: NATO diplomats in Ankara stress “unity and solidarity” ahead of the July 7-8 summit, while the EU launches five joint defense projects to curb fragmented arms spending. Ukraine Missile Detail: Photos released from Zelenskyy’s Odesa visit show Ukraine operating the NSM coastal defense system, with Bulgaria among countries that have ordered it.

Inflation Watch: BNB Governing Council member Iliya Lingorski says Bulgaria’s inflation is driven mainly by domestic factors—especially wage-linked consumption growth—rather than external shocks or the euro. EU Sanctions & Energy: PM Rumen Radev says Bulgaria will place reservations on the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package unless two names are removed—Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil boss Vagit Alekperov—citing protection of national energy interests after Litasco lifted a key restriction affecting Burgas refinery supplies. MRF vs Interior in Courtroom Politics: Yes, Bulgaria co-chair Bozhidar Bozhanov argues Interior Ministry flight data should be trusted over Border Police figures in the Peevski–Atanasova travel dispute; MRF also filed a complaint with the acting Prosecutor General over the Interior minister’s parliamentary hearing. Constitutional Court Clash: Constitutional Court judge Desislava Atanasova denies claims she flew to Dubai with Peevski, saying she traveled only on scheduled Turkish Airlines flights and stayed in Turkey, backing her position with an MoI certificate. Defense & NATO: PM Radev met NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich on security risks and modernization, including faster drone and counter-drone deployment and better interoperability. Education Policy: Radev says the “Virtues” component of the “Virtues and Religion” school subject will be introduced in 2027/28 after broad public consultations and new teaching materials. Local Governance & Procurement: A municipal employee in Ardino was detained over a rural road procurement, with investigators alleging less asphalt than specified and a near-300,000 leva loss. Environment: Sofia’s air quality stayed within legal limits after a waste facility fire, with monitoring showing no exceedances of key pollutants.

EU Sanctions Standoff: Bulgaria’s PM Rumen Radev says Sofia will express reservations—and oppose parts—of the EU’s 21st Russia sanctions package unless two names are removed: Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil boss Vagit Alekperov, arguing it’s about protecting Bulgaria’s energy interests; Italy has also raised concerns over Kirill sanctions. Lukoil Arbitration Fight: Radev links the sanctions position to efforts to avoid arbitration in the Lukoil/Litasco dispute, saying an attachment order was lifted so the Burgas refinery can buy Swiss-registered crude again and operate reliably. MRF vs Interior Minister: The MRF filed a complaint with the acting Prosecutor General over Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev’s parliamentary hearing on alleged private flights by MRF leader Delyan Peevski; Demerdzhiev claims 227 flights since 2018 and cites costs paid via a law firm, while Constitutional Court judge Desislava Atanasova denies travel claims to Dubai. Constitutional Court Clash: Atanasova released documents and insists she traveled only on scheduled flights via Istanbul, after Demerdzhiev alleged she flew with Peevski. Rule of Law at Council of Europe: President Iliana Iotova met Council of Europe officials on the OMO Ilinden cases, stressing Bulgaria has conditions for association rights and urging closure of ECHR judgment supervision. Security & NATO Modernisation: Radev met NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe on regional security risks, interoperability, drone/counter-drone deployment, and using NATO/EU funding for defence modernisation. Local Accountability: Ardino municipality employee detained over rural road procurement over alleged under-thickness asphalt and estimated budget loss; Sofia air quality after a recycling facility fire stayed within legal limits. Education & Culture: Government plans to introduce the “Virtues” component of the Virtues and Religion school subject in 2027/28 after consultations; four cities (Sofia, Burgas, Varna, Plovdiv) submitted Eurovision 2027 host bids to BNT.

Judicial Reform & EU Funding: The European Commission gave a positive assessment of Bulgaria’s judicial reforms and the Prosecutor General’s status, paving the way for the fifth Recovery and Resilience Plan payment. NHIF Politics: Parliament elected Dr Asen Medzhidiev as Deputy Governor of the National Health Insurance Fund after a heated debate over alleged healthcare fund siphoning and political responsibility. Justice System Under Pressure: Justice Minister Nikolay Naydenov asked the Prosecutors’ College to suspend the administrative head of the Sofia City Prosecutor’s Office, while judicial employees staged a symbolic protest against planned 10% budget cuts. Security & Intelligence: A nominee for State Intelligence Agency chair said the agency should use “virtual space” more actively to spot potential agents, as Parliament held an oversight hearing. Local Crackdowns: Interior Ministry operations in Varna and Baba Alino have led to nine new criminal proceedings, including checks on “tolerance certificates.” Human Rights: Naydenov met the Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner on protections for elderly people and Roma, including care-institution reforms. Public Safety: Bulgarian firefighters were deployed to Spain for wildfire support for a month, and police detained seven people over a large laughing-gas distribution haul in Sozopol. EU Budget Fight: Deputy PM Atanas Pekanov said Bulgaria will not accept further cuts to cohesion policy in the EU’s next budget.

Eurozone Budget Watch: Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev warned that the proposed 2026 state budget deficit of 5.7% “deepens” the negative fiscal trend since 2020, arguing the signal matters even more because Bulgaria is under an excessive deficit procedure. Transport & Infrastructure: Transport Minister Georgi Peev told MPs that fewer than half of BDZ’s 266 passenger carriages are air-conditioned, with many built in the 1970s-80s and heatwave conditions reducing effectiveness; he said new trains won’t enter service before September. EU Politics & Justice: MEPs are set to scrutinize concerns about Bulgaria’s EU prosecutor, while a separate move in the European Parliament targets shielding a colleague’s immunity amid the dispute. Public Finance Access: The government is moving to let citizens buy government securities via a simplified procedure, alongside legal changes enabling individual investors to participate. National Security & Defense: Bulgaria’s wildfire response plans include standby military helicopters and aircraft, and NATO-related staffing and exercises continue to shape deployments. Culture & Media Partnerships: BTA signed new media partnerships with Pomorie Municipality and the A to JazZ festival, while President Iliana Iotova marked the 110th anniversary of the National Museum of Military History with a presidential badge. Health Policy Debate: Bulgaria says it won’t change its medicines pricing rule based on the lowest available price, insisting it complies with EU law, despite industry warnings about spillover effects on EU-US relations.

EU Justice & Immunity: MEP Ilhan Kyuchyuk’s immunity is set for a vote after EPPO-linked scrutiny, with Bulgarian lawmakers arguing the case may be politically motivated amid claims of misconduct involving the suspended EPPO prosecutor. Budget & Public Finance: The Council of Ministers approved the 2026 State Budget draft, with maintenance spending up by €1.034bn, while the Finance Ministry expects a cash deficit of about €2.4bn by end-June. Road Infrastructure Accountability: Bulgaria’s Road Infrastructure Agency cancelled a €511m motorway crash-barrier contract, with plans to handle maintenance via direct awards to state firm Avtomagistrali. Social Policy Pressure: Parents staged nationwide protests demanding higher maternity allowances and broader childcare support, including calls for annual indexation and better compensation. Public Services & Media: The electronic media regulator approved Bulgarian National Radio’s report, highlighting a new mobile app, redesigned website and growing digital audiences. Security & Defence: Bulgaria expanded the Black Sea mine-countermeasures mission to protect critical underwater infrastructure, while NATO’s top commander praised Bulgaria’s defence spending and capability plans. Wildfire Readiness: Interior, Defence and Agriculture ministries unveiled a summer wildfire action plan using drones, faster deployment and coordination with forestry services and mayors. Church Position: Patriarch Daniel reiterated the Bulgarian Orthodox Church does not recognize the OCU and supports the Ukrainian Orthodox Church headed by Metropolitan Onuphry.